Data 2000

Seiko Watches

2012.09.17 05:49 Hesalite Seiko Watches

A pro-Seiko forum, for modern & vintage Seiko. Feel free to discuss Seiko watches, new releases, production, restoration input, wrist-checks, questions, everything. Daily Themes: Monday - Seiko Modifications; Wednesday - Divers; Friday - Vintage; Saturday - Sports; Sunday - Special
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2008.08.28 11:03 Watches

A subreddit for discussion of wrist watches and pocket watches.
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2011.02.05 15:17 S2000 news, pics, tips, links

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2020.10.29 15:33 spacej3di Morning Market Synopsis - Thursday, Oct. 29, 2020

US equities mostly higher: Dow +0.29%, S&P 500 +0.78%, Nasdaq +1.18%, Russell 2000 +0.10%
Notable Gainers:
Notable Decliners:
09:29:17 AM CDT on 29 Oct '20
submitted by spacej3di to stocks [link] [comments]


2020.10.29 15:03 OrgasmicWalrus [OC] Why Paul Depodesta might be making the Browns the most efficient team in the league in terms of spending, talent, and wins.

We all know that Paul Depodesta as the analytical "guru" that was brought in to change how the Browns process the game of football, and morph the way in which the Browns evaluate talent and success.

Depo is a pretty tight lipped executive, he likes to lurk in the shadows and does his work rather than live in the spotlight like other execs. Every indication from the team this year has pointed to Depo having a larger say in operational decisions and talent evaluation, as opposed to years past it seems (Looking at you Dorsey, Freddie, and Hue). But I really wanted to get a deeper understanding of what he was bringing to the table, so I did some research, read his quotes, watched his interviews, and gleamed what I could about his expertise and processes. I thought I’d share some of my key takeaways.
Paul learned from A’s GM Billy Beane and sabermetrics creator Bill James to challenge accepted trends and the inefficient understanding of sports. Our eyes deceive us when it comes to talent, we have inherent biases and an inaccurate understanding of what makes a team good. More specifically he challenges the notion of what makes an exceptionally talented team, and how/when/why you acquire the players that make up that team. What Depo has done in every other sporting franchise that he has been a part of, is to create and test a simple equation for wins. Actually wins added I should say. What can a team do to create wins through a player’s output? In baseball it has been relatively easy historically, more runs scored and less runs allowed = more wins. Over a long season and a large enough dataset you can almost predict these two things before you ever play a game just by looking at your players’ key sabermetrics (within a margin of error of course). Depo and Bill Beane did just that in the early 2000s and revolutionized the game of baseball. This is in my opinion Depo’s bread and better. He simplifies the grand scope of a sport into this easily digestible question. This is probably the question he posed to the Brown’s ownership on his first day. The mark for the A’s? 95 wins. That’s how many it takes to get to the playoffs on average in baseball. In the NFL it’s about 11 wins, and that’s the goal for the Browns.
The challenge for Depo back then was quantifying how runs came to be in a game. Was it RBIs? No. Was it Batting Average? Definitely No. Was it Walks? Yes, sort of. It was a combination of putting people on base in any way possible and then hitting them home consistently. Depo valued one stat over all others, OBPS (On Base Percentage Plus Slugging). It didn’t matter how the player got there as long as they put themselves in a place to score and the next person brought them home. The A’s went as far as to seek out laughably unconventional ballplayers as long as they filled this stat column (fat guys, old guys, short guys, slow guys, etc). And they told everyone from the minors up that they needed to walk more as well. The next question we might have at this point, is does a similar stat exist in football, or can we create an equation that produces a valuable football stat like OBPS to baseball? * Well no not really, at least it’s not a totally provable hypothesis as of yet. Notably because there are lot more positions in football and each position is graded on a different scale of course. Although organizations like Football Outsiders and Pro Football Focus do try their damndest to find these value stats for each position, nevertheless their methodology may still be flawed. DYAR and DVOA stats are a good jumping off point in this area as well https://www.footballoutsiders.com/info/methods.
*An educated guesser might speculate an indicator similar to OBPS for a team offense is a combination of scoring efficiency and ball control, for defense maybe a combination of turnovers created and red zone stops. But who knows honestly, smarter men than me have probably pondered this for much longer than I have and been paid very well for their thoughts. Paul has indicated in interviews though that he and the Browns front office may have found something similar to this treasured sabermetric in football but he’s very coy and hush-hush regarding tangible football stats the team looks for.
https://youtu.be/CGSDm-xQNlE?t=157 here’s just one example of him discussing draft indicators.
In football it’s increasingly more difficult to suss out indicators that player stats correlate with team success. First there's much less data to work with, the NFL has 16 games a year, college even less. The other challenge is that the game is played wholly differently depending on schemes, players, and situation. Think Air Raid vs. Power run. And thus the players in these systems must adapt to their surroundings. Lastly the talent pool is much smaller in football than in baseball, 40 rounds of drafting are more forgiving for finding talent than 7 rounds of course. Which leads to another Depo fact, Playing time and performance at the college level is much more valuable than raw potential and athleticism. He spells this out in Moneyball a lot. The A’s never drafted high school players, contrary to all other MLB teams they despised young five tool ballplayers. In fact they really only drafted college players with significant statistical output and playing time to back the data up. If you look at the Browns’ most recent drafts then you will notice this exact trend being used especially with top draft picks. Take a look:
Baker Mayfield: 4 year starter. NCAA record holder & Heisman Winner
Denzel Ward: 3 years of play, 2 years starting. All American
Nick Chubb: 4 year starter. SEC record holder
Jedrick Wills: 3 year starter. All American
Harrison Bryant: 3 year starter. All American. Mackey Award
Grant Delpit: 3 year starter. 2 x All American, Thorpe Award
Jacob Phillips: 3 year starter
Donovan Peoples Jones: 3 year starter
Outlier: Greedy Williams
These players simply produced in college and they produced over multiple years. Depodesta sees a correlation between on field production and future success for sure. Physical traits are always secondary in this regard.
I believe Depo values a few positions more than any other on the football field as well. Number one is The Quarterback (I know that’s obvious). They are the hitter in football. They control the offense, the majority of scoring, and the flow of the game. I think that Depo saw something in Baker Mayfield that lit up his talent indicator more than any other college player this decade besides maybe Mahomes and Burrow. He doesn’t just want a game manager; he wants an extra efficient game controller, somebody who puts their team in a position to score on every possible drive (similar to getting on base in baseball). College Baker is a stat nerd’s wet dream. The mixture of total yards, touchdowns, turnover efficiency, and completions is truly a sight to behold. Just take a look at these statistical comparisons before his draft https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2018/qbase-2018

Top QBASE Projections, 1997-2017

QBASE Players

Philip Rivers 1964
Carson Palmer 1916
Donovan McNabb 1799
Baker Mayfield 1480
Russell Wilson 1288
Peyton Manning 1279
Marcus Mariota 1277
Byron Leftwich 1216
Aaron Rodgers 1216
Ben Roethlisberger 1211
That’s rarified air Baker is put in there, and it was an important indicator for me to jump on his bandwagon early on. Although I will say don’t be totally surprised if the Browns move on from Baker if this year he doesn’t show better production in the second half. Billy Beane and Depo regularly traded or let walk great players if they felt they could find similar efficiency in the market or draft. Eg. Jason Giambi, Ben Grieve, Carlos Pena to name a few.
Side note: Screw Freddie Kitchens and the rest of the former offensive staff for setting Baker back a year by the way. In my opinion, if we had Stefanski last year then Baker most likely wouldn’t have regressed as sharply as we saw.
Another position group he most likely values significantly is the O Line. Without them the offensive efficiency grinds to a halt both throwing the ball and running the ball. Expect lots of money and draft capital to be tied up in these guys every year. Lastly I think on the defensive side he values disruptive players, guys who grind the game to a halt and create offensive opportunities through turnovers. It also gives our "hitter" aka quarterback a chance to score immediately, and damn is our turnover rate good this year. https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2020/opp.htm
The 49ers front office built their team around this concept as well last year. Defensive Ends and Cornerbacks come to mind immediately here as positons of importance. I don’t think the team expected Olivier Vernon and Greedy Williams to be out for as many games as they have been which may have thrown a slight wrench in the franchise’s plan sadly.
A point hammered home by Depo repeatedly this year is that Everyone in the organization from the top down has to be on the same page when it comes to macro strategies in sports. That includes the owner, GM, scouts, and coaches. Indicated by Depo here: https://youtu.be/JjFYRSikVEk?t=53 Depo expressed that's why he brought in Andrew Berry and Kevin Stefanski specifically this season. Depo and Haslam explained to them what system they were trying to build for the Browns and they needed everyone on board before signing off on their hires (Dorsey and Hue didn’t buy in totally). Billy Beane realized this organizational view early on and his disciple Paul definitely preaches this as well. Now they have a cavalcade of Ivy League economics majors running an NFL team with the same goal in mind, get more wins through any means possible.
In Oakland he was tasked with finding out how to add wins with talent that cost substantially less than his opposition. I mean we’re talking magnitudes less of capital ($40m vs $140m). It was thought impossible to compete with large team payrolls at the time. Baseball’s commissioner even put together a panel of economic experts that flat out told him that professional baseball was broken and that competitiveness relied solely on the amount of money spent on talent. Billy Beane and Depo scoffed at that conclusion and proceeded to drag a bunch of misfits and outcasts to Oakland’s best regular season ever. He also did similar with the Mets ten years later (RA Dickey anyone?).
Which brings me to the last and possibly most observable takeaway from the browns strategy this season. Homegrown talent is significantly cheaper than acquired talent and you should use that homegrown talent for as long as possible and for as little money as possible. The Browns have the lowest salary in the league right now and are the only team in the bottom 10 salaries to have 4+ wins. https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/cap/
It’s hard to say for certain if Depo is directly responsible for this but it’s safe to assume that he brought a little moneyball swagger to our beloved team.
The extensions of key players will be something to watch out for this season and next season as well (Myles is secured, Ward and Baker are next). The A’s were masters of replacing outgoing or expiring talent with cheaper players and regularly fleeced teams with trades that seemed insignificant and stupid at first glance. If the Browns make a trade this year then look for them to add a player with at least two years remaining on their contract and probably someone who isn’t flashy or raw but produces consistently in key categories.
It’s hard to tell how much of our success this year so far is due to Depodesta’s overall decision making and influence, or Dorsey’s drafting and player evaluation (mind you we have kept most of the scouting staff from the past 4 years as well). I lean towards the former personally. Really it’s the first time in forever that I’ve felt the team is in good hands and that we are working towards something exceptional with clear goals in mind. I love where the Browns stand right now in the division and I love where they could be in the next few years. I think we finally have a culture and strategy that is set to acquire and utilize talent like our franchise has never seen. Paul Depodesta might be the shadowy puppet master that some people imagine but I think simply he is man that is able to communicate clear and concise goals and make an exceptionally efficient plan on how to achieve them.
TLDR. I read Moneyball and had a wet dream about the Browns making the playoffs finally and then losing to New York.
submitted by OrgasmicWalrus to Browns [link] [comments]


2020.10.29 14:43 Ridingthewave00 Help coding. HTML CHEATING FIANCE. Here is some of the code I dug through on my list but there is a ton more but I don't want to post it on here.

She has access to my Verizon account and keeps tabs on me 24/7 or her twin please let me know if this looksl
1-Time:2020-10-25 18:20:26-133<<
-------------RecvBuffer[7DB0A07580]--------- HTTP/1.1 200 OK Server: nginx/1.16.1 Date: Mon, 26 Oct 2020 01:20:26 GMT Content-Type: text/plain; charset=utf-8 Content-Length: 785 Connection: keep-alive
%7B%22msg%22%3A%22SUCCESS%22%2C%22code%22%3A2000%2C%22data%22%3A%5B%7B%22id%22%3A1%2C%22country%22%3A%22%E4%B8%AD%E5%9B%BD%22%2C%22rule%22%3A%22%5E1%5B0-9%5D%5C%5Cd%7B9%7D%24%22%2C%22head%22%3A%22%2B86%22%2C%22remark%22%3A%22CN%22%2C%22def%22%3Afalse%7D%2C%7B%22id%22%3A2%2C%22country%22%3A%22%E6%9F%AC%E5%9F%94%E5%AF%A8%22%2C%22rule%22%3A%22%5B0-9%5D%24%22%2C%22head%22%3A%22%2B855%22%2C%22remark%22%3A%22KH%22%2C%22def%22%3Afalse%7D%2C%7B%22id%22%3A3%2C%22country%22%3A%22%E6%B3%B0%E5%9B%BD%22%2C%22rule%22%3A%22%5B0-9%5D%24%22%2C%22head%22%3A%22%2B66%22%2C%22remark%22%3A%22TH%22%2C%22def%22%3Afalse%7D%2C%7B%22id%22%3A4%2C%22country%22%3A%22%E8%B6%8A%E5%8D%97%22%2C%22rule%22%3A%22%5B0-9%5D*%24%22%2C%22head%22%3A%22%2B84%22%2C%22remark%22%3A%22VN%22%2C%22def%22%3Afalse%7D%5D%7D ------------END--------------

2-Time:2020-10-25 18:20:26-134<<

{"msg":"SUCCESS","code":2000,"data":[{"id":1,"country":"中国","rule":"1[0-9]\d{9}$","head":"+86","remark":"CN","def":false},{"id":2,"country":"柬埔寨","rule":"[0-9]$","head":"+855","remark":"KH","def":false},{"id":3,"country":"泰国","rule":"[0-9]$","head":"+66","remark":"TH","def":false},{"id":4,"country":"越南","rule":"[0-9]*$","head":"+84","remark":"VN","def":false}]}

3-Time:2020-10-25 18:20:26-134<< IXMAccount::GetErrorCode[code=2000/result=0] 4-Time:2020-10-25 18:20:26-134<< EMSG_SYS_GET_PHONE_SUPPORT_AREA_CODE[nRet:0] 5-Time:2020-10-25 18:20:26-134<< [CServer::OnMsg--Leavel[Time:884]] 6-Time:2020-10-25 18:20:26-134<< [CServer::OnMsg--Enter][msgId=5000] 7-Time:2020-10-25 18:20:26-134<< GetDevList_ByUserName_XMCloud--------> userName:
submitted by Ridingthewave00 to it [link] [comments]


2020.10.29 13:24 SergeyKrayev Sergey Krayev Bio

Sergey Krayev Bio

https://preview.redd.it/t3xsvuej11w51.jpg?width=1280&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=2810f24398218534a447e39998e6a5dba2afeb88
Sergey Krayev was born in Moldova. While still a child, he immigrated to the United States with his family in pursuit of American ambition. After landing in the US, they settled in Buffalo, NY. He speaks and writes fluent Russian. While Sergey was growing up, he determined that upstate New York did not suit him. He, therefore, relocated to Georgia, Atlanta, where he has been residing for decades. His university education included a bachelor’s of science degree in Telecommunication from DeVry's university in the year 2000.
He joined and completed the Stanford Advanced Management Program from Stanford University after working for five years in a program management capacity. This program increased his project management skills to manage different kinds and sizes of projects and initiatives. Presently, he lives and works in Johns Creek, Georgia. He had lived in various places in the past, including Roswell and Marietta, Georgia. Sergey Krayev is a married family man who values his family and friends.
From 2014, Sergey Krayev has been a dedicated managing director at Partnership Network. The company, which is situated in the great Atlanta region, aims at creating channels for marketing global partnerships with an interest in the technology sector, which offers program analytics and enhancements and developing and implementing the go-to-market strategy. His duties included developing global partnership marketing methods and supervising the tech start-up section, program analytics, and optimization.
Moreover, since 2014, Sergey Krayev has been the serving vice president of Strategic Development at Vertical LLC. The company is situated in Alpharetta, GA. It is a rapidly expanding firm with a focus on interior and exterior multifamily upgrades in the southern US. The company engages in Major projects situated in Atlanta and its environs. At Vertical LLC, Sergey was responsible for asset management, marketing program development, and engineering and design services to support development initiatives.
Sergey Krayev has previously served in various positions in different companies. He served as a Strategic Advisor at Clickagy for close to two years (May 2014 to June 2016). Clickagy is a third-party of digital marketing data and analytics that exploits proprietary, revolutionary artificial intelligence. He worked as the director of online marketing and e-commerce at Sage, situated in the Great Atlanta Region, between February 2013 and May 2014. He was tasked with developing North American business strategy, coordinating and aligning market channels with global initiatives, and developing new products (market research, analyzing competition, product positioning, and market approach).
Additionally, Sergey Krayev served as the head of e-marketing and e-commerce at Mizuno Corporation between June 2011 and December 2012. The company and its partners produce and market sporting items. While at Mizuno, he was responsible for promoting initiatives to promote e-commerce strategies to increase sales, rates of conversion, and online user experience, developed efforts to launch products, and overseeing the promotional collaboration with partners such as Amazon, Zappos, and Dick's sporting, etc.
Between 2008 and August 2011, while serving as a Global interactive manager at Kimberly-Clark, Sergey Krayev was tasked with developing and enforcing global B2B interactive platform for different product platforms, he led the development of the new corporate Kimberly-Clark healthcare website, including evaluating and selecting vendors, selecting appropriate CMS and LMS platforms and establishing strategies to localize content and social media engagement and integrating social media communication strategies to trigger awareness of continuous marketing initiatives to improve the brand positioning of Kimberly-Clark.
In the last 20 years, Sergey Krayev has assisted many businesses to have a brand presence and achieve their goals. He has developed a strategy that empowers your brand and provides your enterprise with vital marketing tools for success. Besides, he conducts consultation services that will enable you to identify disparities and possibilities. He will furnish you with a detailed report of the outcome, including the project schedule for cost evaluation. These project plans are customized to assist in the quick and seamless achievement of your goals. It does not matter whether you have just started your business or it is an established enterprise, Sergey Krayev will help you develop a brand story that resonates with your customers.
A saying goes that his ambitions measure a man. Sergey Krayev is truly a success story. Although many people opt to work individually, having an understanding and cooperative partner can make a big difference in the success of your business. Even Sergey Krayev had members of a team that helped him succeed. If you want to witness your business's exponential growth, contact Sergey Krayev for guidance on how to make your business a success. Since he has vast business experience, you will not have to struggle while navigating the turbulent business world because he will use his knowledge and expertise to ensure your success. Sergey Krayev believes that your success is his success, too, and he will, therefore, strive for your success by increasing your growth and turnover rate. Sergey Krayev has experience as the most valuable tool on offer.
submitted by SergeyKrayev to u/SergeyKrayev [link] [comments]


2020.10.29 07:27 1983_qt A timeline of American political collapse and rot, beginning in 1963

I think American political collapse truly begins in 1963, following the Civil Rights movement
September 1963 - 16th Street Baptist Church Bombing, four black children killed during church by dynamite perpetrated by the local Ku Klux Klan chapter in Birmingham, Alabama
November 1963 - Assassination of President Kennedy
April 1968 - Assassination of Martin Luther King
June 1968 - Assassination of Bobby Kennedy
August 1968 - Hubert Humphrey receives the Democratic nomination for President, despite 80% of primary voters voting for anti-Vietnam war candidates. This decision would solidify Nixon’s victory later that year.
May 1970 - Kent State Massacre, four unarmed anti-war protestors killed by Ohio National Guard
June 1972 - 1974: Watergate Scandal, Nixon Administration caught wiretapping the Democratic National Headquarters heading into 1972 General Election, and failed to cover it up. 69 officials convicted
Autumn 1974 - Nixon resigns but is immediately pardoned by President Ford, closing all further Watergate investigations
1969 - 1974 - President Nixon continued the bloody and unpopular Vietnam War, and even expanded the bombings into Laos and Cambodia. 58,000 Americans killed in total. Nixon Administration also responsible for helping to orchestrate 1973 Chilean coup, allowing Augusto Pinochet's rise to power as a neo-fascist dictator in South America
November 1979 - Greensboro Massacre, four members of the Communist Workers Party and one protestor killed by the Ku Klux Klan and American Nazi Party during a protest march in Greensboro, North Carolina
November 1980 - Actor Ronald Reagan wins the Presidency, championing religious conservatism, free-market policies, and aggressive militaristic stance against Soviet Union
August 1981 - Tax Act of 1981, major legislation championed by Reagan that saw massive deregulation and extreme tax cuts, especially federal income tax rates. The Reagan era is really when corporatism and big business dominate American life and politics.
August 1981 - Air traffic controller union goes on strike, which was met with fierce aggression from Reagan Administration, 11,000 employees fired and sets a precedent of anti-union sentiment
1985 - 1987: Iran-Contra Affair, Reagan Administration sold arms to Iran in order to fund the Contras in Nicaragua, illegally bypassing Congress legislation and committing high treason
1990 - 1991: Gulf War, thousands of American soldiers sent by President H.W. Bush to defend American energy corporations and a Kuwaiti dictator
1992 - 1994: NAFTA (North American Free Trade Agreement) signed into law by President H.W. Bush, accelerating deindustrialization and outsourcing jobs to poorer nations with cheap labor standards, slowly but surely hollowing out and bankrupting the American middle class, working class, and ruining most of the Midwestern economy
Spring 1993: Waco Siege; military, federal, and Texas state law enforcement in a standoff with the Branch Davidians, a religious cult. FBI was seeking arrest warrants but after 51 days of the cult refusing to leave the compound, US officials botched attempts at a successful siege and 76 Davidians were trapped in the compound and were burnt alive.
September 1994: 1994 Crime Bill passes and championed by Joseph Biden in the Senate, expanding extreme prison sentences for Black Americans for minor drug offenses. The 80’s and 90’s was really when the War on Drugs was in full force and both parties can be seen as unitary in lawmaking regarding crime.
April 1995 - Oklahoma City Bombing, Timothy McVeigh bombs a federal building in Oklahoma, killing 168 and injuring 600. In response to this, Congress tightened rules regarding habeas corpus and made several new federal crimes punishable by death.
Winter 2000 - George Bush wins the Presidency, despite losing the popular vote. Vote recounting in Florida was struck down by the Supreme Court, essentially handing the election loser the presidency
Autumn 2001 - September 11 attacks ensue, followed by the passage of the Patriot Act, legalizing mass surveillance and data collection in the name of national security
January 2002 - Guantanamo Bay Detention Camp opens in Guantanamo Bay Naval Base in Cuba, established by the Bush Administration to detain and interrogate terrorists involved in the 9/11 Attacks. Extreme violation of human rights as well as indefinite detention without trial and torture were committed against prisoners here and despite promises of the Obama Administration to close the military facility, it remains operational to this day
Spring 2003 - Disastrous Invasion of Iraq, attempts of Bush Administration to establish geopolitical and economic dominance in the Middle East despite Iraq having no connection to the September 11 attacks. 180,000 Iraqi civilians are reported to have been killed since 2016
August 2005 - Hurricane Katrina, complete failure of Bush Administration to administer relief to the entire New Orleans region, 1,800 fatalities total
October 2008 - Bank bailout act passed by President Bush, rewarding and bailing out the same corporations with billions of dollars, despite these banks’ practices and corruption responsible for the 2008 financial crisis
2009 - 2010: Citizens United v. FEC, Supreme Court decision regarding campaign finance, ruling donations from corporations or associations to politicians as free speech. This decision essentially legalized special interests and bribery in government.
2011 - 2012: Occupy movement and Occupy Wall Street protest met with fierce law enforcement retaliation and mass arrests. This movement to address economic inequality was met with zero political support, and none from the Obama Administration
Spring 2016 - 2016 Democratic primaries, Hillary is nominated despite leaked information revealing the DNC was actively trying to suppress the progressive candidate, Bernard Sanders
November 2016 - Trump wins the Presidency, this one kind of explains itself, rise of fascist rhetoric and talking points, cult of personality built around Trump himself
Spring 2020 - 2020 Democratic primaries, Biden is nominated despite foul play suspected. Foul play also suspected in Iowa Caucus, Buttigieg wins more delegates despite receiving less votes than Sanders. All centrist candidates dropped out days before Super Tuesday to solidify a centrist nomination, Joe Biden, while Warren did not drop out until after, taking votes away from Bernie in critical primary states
2020 - Complete failure of Trump Administration to contain Coronavirus, continues to this day with 225,000 dead, mass unemployment, and suspected political corruption and criminal intent with mail-in ballot rhetoric.
2020 - Nationwide protests of police brutality and corruption sweep nation, mostly met with fierce retaliation and escalation by police and National Guard. Kicked off by the murder of George Floyd, the Republican Party painted this movement as some Marxist plot coming to destroy America's cities while Establishment Democrats and Progressives argue on the issue of police funding, corruption, and accountability.
More to come soon, thanks!
submitted by 1983_qt to collapse [link] [comments]


2020.10.29 05:28 Fantastic-Reply Palantir

One of the most mysterious companies of our time. Secret software developer for special services. A company that knows everything about you. So various media called the American software company Palantir Technologies, which works with data analysis. Her clients include the army, police, intelligence agencies, banks, and more recently the US Department of Health, which commissioned Palantir to work on a platform to fight the coronavirus.
How the company deserved the dislike of human rights activists, what services it provides to the American security forces, how the Russian hacker attacks on PayPal influenced its creation and why it is accused of facilitating the tracking of immigrants, we will now figure it out! Palantir provides its products to a wide range of customers, but its main customers are intelligence agencies and government organizations.
Palantir software allows you to compare data from many sources, find relationships between them and visualize them in the form of various diagrams. Human rights activists believe Palantir's cooperation with certain US government agencies may violate human rights.
Founded in 2003, Palantir takes its name from the palantir stones in J.R.R. Tolkien's legendarium. With their help, it was possible to see what was happening or what happened in another place. Palantir is the brainchild of renowned entrepreneur and investor Peter Thiel, so the Lord of the Rings reference is not surprising. He often draws inspiration from the Tolkien universe - the names of at least five companies co-founded by Thiel are taken from Tolkien's writings. Thiel is known as "the PayPal mafia don". It was while working at PayPal that he got the idea to create Palantir. And the Russian hacker contributed to this.
In his book From Zero to One. How to create a startup that will change the future Thiel spoke about the problem that PayPal faced in the mid-2000s - the company could not track a large number of transfers and due to credit card fraud, it was losing more than $ 10 million monthly . Initially, an automatic algorithm for tracking transactions, created by mathematicians, did not work - the scammers quickly adjusted to it and changed their tactics.
Later, PayPal rewrote the program using a hybrid approach - "the computer marked the most suspicious transactions in the user interface, and the human operators already made the final decision whether it was fraudulent or not." "We named this hybrid system Igor, after a Russian internet scammer who boasted that we could never deal with him," Thiel writes. Thanks to the new solution, the first quarter of 2002 was the first profitable quarter in PayPal history. The FBI got interested in the decision and asked permission to use "Igor" for solving financial crimes.
After the sale of PayPal, Thiel continued to think about a solution and shared with his fellow student Alex Karp the idea of a new startup - a symbiosis of humans and algorithms in data analysis to find terrorist networks and financial fraudsters.
Subsequently, this idea will be embodied in the creation of a software company that allows you to extract maximum information from disparate data sources. She will be named Palantir, and Karp will take over as CEO. In addition to Karp, Thiel recruited ex-PayPal engineer Nathan Gettings and two Stanford alumni Joe Lonsdale and Stephen Cohen to create Palantir.
They had to develop an algorithm. Despite the FBI's interest in the Igor solution, government agencies did not immediately notice Palantir, which offered a similar algorithm with an easy-to-use interface. Initially, the development was fully funded by Thiel himself.
Alex Karp, who was tasked with finding funding, was unlucky - dozens of investors turned down the startup. However, soon Palantir nevertheless became interesting - the company received $ 2 million from the venture capital arm of the CIA In-Q-Tel. "The In-Q-Tel investment gave Palantir something more important than money: CIA approval.
As the doors began to open in Washington, Palantir began to attract fans from intelligence and national security organizations, "writes Intelligencer. Subsequently, Palantir's clients included various government agencies, including the FBI, the US Department of Homeland Security, the NSA, the US Air Force and others. Palantir's customers included the Los Angeles Police Department.
Sarah Brayne, a sociology professor at the University of Texas at Austin, has spent over two years studying how Los Angeles cops use the system. The results of her research have not only lifted the curtain on exactly how Palantir works, but also caused many to worry about the consequences. The Palantir database contained standard information about citizens - name, gender, place of study, and the like.
Additional information came into the system from government agencies, for example, from the US Department of Motor Vehicles. It was also populated with data purchased from private companies. The system included not only offenders, but also their contact persons. "I would warn against the thought that if you have nothing to hide, you have nothing to fear. This logic is based on the assumption that information [into the system] is being entered without error or prejudice, "Brain said.
Palantir software scans a variety of data sources - financial documents, flight booking information, cell phone data, social media messages - and looks for connections analysts might miss, Bloomberg reported. It then presents the detected connections in easy-to-interpret graphics that look like spider webs.
Reporters reviewed the user manual for the Palantir Gotham app used by law enforcement agencies. According to him, the police could obtain extensive information about a person, having practically no data about him - for example, knowing only the name or number of the car. Some data sources - such as marriage, divorce, birth, and business records - also included data on other people who are associated with the person.
Sarah Brain called this secondary surveillance network. "When the police become interested in someone, they don't just collect phone numbers, business relationships, the suspect's travels, and the like. She also collects information about people associated with him, "writes Vice. A special tool allowed the police to filter, sort, display, analyze and export various data.
Found relationships are visualized using charts, histograms or timelines - the tool selected the best option based on the analyzed data. When a person appeared in the system, a police officer could "subscribe" to him, follows from Brain's study of the interaction of Los Angeles law enforcement officers with Palantir.
For example, a police officer could receive a notification on the phone when the car of a person who interested him was in a "suspicious" area. This was achieved by integrating data from outdoor video surveillance cameras into the Palantir system. "Without public scrutiny or regulation, Palantir has helped LAPD build a vast database of names, addresses, phone numbers, license plates, friendships and romantic relationships – guilty, innocent, and those in between," writes BuzZFeed.
Another customer for Palantir was the US Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE). In 2014, she awarded the firm a $ 41 million contract to build and maintain a tracking system. Human rights activists are convinced that Palantir played a key role in the deportations of illegal migrants. The company insisted that they did not work with the ICE department responsible for the detention of undocumented immigrants and deportation. However, Palantir's assurances have not convinced human rights defenders.
Amnesty International criticized the company's contracts with ICE and said Palantir was "failing to meet its human rights obligations." Particular attention to the collaboration between Palantir and ICE is also riveted because of Peter Thiel's ties with US President Donald Trump, who is known for his anti-immigrant rhetoric. Thiel is perhaps the only Silicon Valley representative to openly support Trump.
Karp, who harshly criticized Trump in 2015, was spotted meeting with him among the leaders of large technology companies immediately after the latter was elected president. Palantir's work with ICE has generated internal resentment among the company's employees. Karp said that cooperation with the authorities will continue. "Silicon Valley says to the average American:“ I'm not going to support your need for defense, "while it sells its developments to countries hostile to America. This is the position of the losers, "Karp said.
This patriotism is almost the fundamental idea of Palantir. The company's filed to go public says it "does not work with clients or governments whose positions or actions are incompatible with the mission to support Western liberal democracy and its strategic allies." The fact that the main clients of Palantir are precisely the US security forces and intelligence services fully reflects the company's commitment to this mission.
As Bloomberg wrote, according to some reports, the Palantir system even helped to eliminate the terrorist Osama bin Laden. The company does not confirm or debunk these rumors. Thiel in his book only stated that "he cannot tell anything about that operation." He noted that with the help of programs created by Palantir, analysts were able to predict "where the Afghan insurgents are planning to set the bombings."
At the same time, Palantir is trying to ease its dependence on government contracts and expand its client base. Commercial clients work with Palantir Foundry, a data integration platform. The financial holding JPMorgan became one of the first corporate clients of the company. However, this collaboration was initially clouded by a scandal. In 2009, Palantir specialists worked with the bank's insider threat detection team, Bloomberg reports.
Palantir software analyzed e-mail, browser history, transcripts of telephone conversations, identifying keywords and behavior patterns of bank employees. For example, the Palantir algorithm alerted JPMorgan's insider team when an employee started arriving late for work, a sign of potential frustration. The workers were shocked that "no one from the bank or Palantir set any restrictions," the newspaper writes. This story ended with the bank's top managers finding out that they too were being followed. "A platform developed for the war on terrorists has been used against ordinary Americans," Bloomberg concludes. To meet its privacy and security commitments, Palantir catalogs and labels system users' data - everything is recorded.
The company is also trying to follow certain "ethical standards" - an ethics hotline called Batphone has been set up for Palantir employees. It allows them to anonymously report to Palantir management about work for a client that they consider unethical. A hotline appeared after the WikiLeaks scandal. In 2011, it became known that one of the employees discussed in emails the possibility of spying on WikiLeaks informers in order to prevent the organization from disclosing documents from Bank of America.
Karp has made a public apology and said Palantir supports the right to free speech and privacy. Karp himself believes that the company can find a balance between protecting privacy and ensuring security. "I didn't sign up for the government to know when I'm smoking a joint or [with whom] I'm having an affair," Karp quotes Forbes.
In his letter, Karp almost directly accused Silicon Valley companies like Facebook and Google of selling personal data and intruding on privacy. "Software projects with our country's defense and intelligence agencies, whose missions are to keep us safe, have become controversial, while companies based on advertising money have become commonplace," Karp writes.
He noted that the Silicon Valley engineering elite may know more about software creation than anyone else, but "don't know more about how society should be organized and what justice requires." But as Intelligencer points out, his argument ignores the fact that Palantir was used to analyze data from social media, including Facebook posts. In 2020, Palantir directly listed its shares on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE).
According to documents disclosed by the US Securities and Exchange Commission, the company had 125 clients in the first half of 2020. Palantir's revenue for this period reached $ 481.2 million. It also follows from the documents that revenue from government contracts increased by 76%, and from commercial contracts - by only 27%. Cumulatively, since June 2019, it has almost halved. Data from Palantir documents filed with the US Securities and Exchange Commission At the same time, Palantir has suffered losses every year since its inception, the company itself pointed out in the section on risks. A significant portion of the revenue comes from a limited number of customers. In addition, according to Bloomberg Businessweek,
investors will have little or no influence on management decisions, since Palantir is designed in such a way that Thiel, Karp and third co-founder Stephen Cohen control half of the voting shares through the trust indefinitely." The publication notes that the company can afford it in part because its software is "almost perfect for solving the problems associated with the coronavirus pandemic." At the end of April, the US Department of Health and Human Services (HHS), which is responsible for tackling the pandemic in the United States, awarded Palantir a $ 25 million contract.
The company is to oversee HHS Protect's data collection and analysis platform. "The deal was one of more than a hundred that Palantir struck in the early days of the pandemic - 83 of them between March and early April - and this is one of the reasons for the improvement in the company's financial performance this year," Bloomberg Businessweek notes. Against the background of this transaction, several members of Congress at once asked what kind of data HHS Protect would collect and how they would use it, recalling the ICE scandal.
"We have concerns about how the existing Palantir system used to track and arrest immigrants will be supplemented with personal health information from HHS Protect," the letter said. Deploying large-scale citizen tracking systems during a pandemic is a serious concern for human rights defenders. Especially when the companies creating such systems are closely associated with the authorities.
submitted by Fantastic-Reply to conspiracy [link] [comments]


2020.10.29 05:06 LeBlanc2141 Ryza 200pt list help

So trying to refine my 2k pt list and pretty new so interested in any opinions and advice. Secondaries i plan on using are engage on all front and deploy scramblers and third is open based on opponents list
++ Battalion Detachment 0CP (Imperium - Adeptus Mechanicus) [98 PL, 11CP, 1,999pts] ++
**+ Configuration
Battle Size [12CP]: 3. Strike Force (101-200 Total PL / 1001-2000 Points)
Detachment CP
Forge World Choice
. Forge World: Ryza
+ HQ +
Tech-Priest Dominus [5 PL, 80pts]: Macrostubber, Relic (Ryza): Weapon XCIX, Volkite Blaster, Warlord, Warlord Trait (Engine War): Divinations of the Magos
Tech-Priest Manipulus [4 PL, -1CP, 70pts]: Mechanicus Locum, Transonic cannon, Warlord Trait (Codex 6): Prime Hermeticon
+ Troops +
Kataphron Destroyers [21 PL, 438pts]
. Kataphron Destroyer: Cognis Flamer, Plasma Culverin
. Kataphron Destroyer: Cognis Flamer, Plasma Culverin
. Kataphron Destroyer: Cognis Flamer, Plasma Culverin
. Kataphron Destroyer: Cognis Flamer, Plasma Culverin
. Kataphron Destroyer: Cognis Flamer, Plasma Culverin
. Kataphron Destroyer: Cognis Flamer, Plasma Culverin
. Kataphron Destroyer: Cognis Flamer, Plasma Culverin
. Kataphron Destroyer: Phosphor Blaster, Plasma Culverin
 
Skitarii Rangers [3 PL, 55pts]
. Ranger Alpha: Galvanic Rifle
. 2x Skitarii Ranger: 2x Galvanic Rifle
. 2x Skitarii Ranger (Arc Rifle): 2x Arc Rifle
 
Skitarii Vanguards [3 PL, 65pts]
. 2x Skitarii Vanguard: 2x Radium Carbine
. 2x Skitarii Vanguard (Plasma Caliver): 2x Plasma Caliver
. Vanguard Alpha: Radium Carbine
 
Skitarii Vanguards [3 PL, 65pts]
. 2x Skitarii Vanguard: 2x Radium Carbine
. 2x Skitarii Vanguard (Plasma Caliver): 2x Plasma Caliver
. Vanguard Alpha: Radium Carbine
 
+ Elites +
 
Fulgurite Electro-Priests [8 PL, 170pts]
. 10x Fulgurite Electro-Priest: 10x Electroleech Stave
 
Fulgurite Electro-Priests [8 PL, 170pts]
. 10x Fulgurite Electro-Priest: 10x Electroleech Stave
 
Sicarian Ruststalkers [4 PL, 70pts]
. Ruststalker Princeps (Blades)
. 4x Sicarian Ruststalker (RazoChordclaw): 4x Chordclaw, 4x Transonic Razor
 
+ Fast Attack +
 
Pteraxii Sterylizors [5 PL, 100pts]
. 4x Pteraxii Sterylizor: 4x Phosphor torch, 4x Pteraxii Talons
. Pteraxii Sterylizor Alpha: Taser Goad
 
Serberys Raiders [2 PL, 48pts]: Serberys Raider Alpha
. 2x Serberys Raider: 2x Cavalry Sabre, 2x Clawed Limbs, 2x Galvanic Carbine
 
Serberys Raiders [2 PL, 48pts]: Serberys Raider Alpha
. 2x Serberys Raider: 2x Cavalry Sabre, 2x Clawed Limbs, 2x Galvanic Carbine
 
+ Heavy Support +
 
Onager Dunecrawler [6 PL, 135pts]: Broad Spectrum Data-tether, Cognis Heavy Stubber
. Neutron Laser and Cognis Heavy Stubber: Cognis Heavy Stubber, Neutron Laser
 
Onager Dunecrawler [6 PL, 135pts]: Broad Spectrum Data-tether, Cognis Heavy Stubber
. Neutron Laser and Cognis Heavy Stubber: Cognis Heavy Stubber, Neutron Laser
 
+ Flyer +
 
Archaeopter Stratoraptor [8 PL, 150pts]: 2x Cognis Heavy Stubber, Command Uplink, 2x Heavy Phosphor Blaster, Twin Cognis Lascannon
 
+ Dedicated Transport +
 
Skorpius Dunerider [5 PL, 100pts]: 2x Cognis Heavy Stubber, Twin Cognis Heavy Stubber
 
Skorpius Dunerider [5 PL, 100pts]: 2x Cognis Heavy Stubber, Twin Cognis Heavy Stubber
 
++ Total: [98 PL, 11CP, 1,999pts] ++
 
Created with BattleScribe
submitted by LeBlanc2141 to AdeptusMechanicus [link] [comments]


2020.10.29 04:37 ChessPlayer123 Investigating which online ratings correspond to having sufficient strength to be titled.

Thought I would share my findings with you guys. I had a look through chesscom and found the ratings of all national masters and candidate masters. Because im exceptionally lazy I haven't bother to make it look nice, but here are the results:
NM blitz and rapid ratings distribution: https://imgur.com/a/kr4jn0z
CM blitz and rapid ratings distribution: https://imgur.com/a/9fzKFLU
NM Blitz rating distribution summary statistics: https://imgur.com/a/LLF5SuX
CM Blitz rating distribution summary statistics: https://imgur.com/a/A6y7nIz
TLDSUMMARY: Around 2000 rating in blitz/rapid on chesscom you're probably strong enough to be a CM/NM and you would be roughly in the bottom 30% of CM's/NM's strength if you did. Obviously there is more detail than that but im exceptionally lazy. If you want more data or want me to send/upload my findings I am happy to help if you drop a comment or DM me.
submitted by ChessPlayer123 to chess [link] [comments]


2020.10.29 01:34 the_lilypad The ghost of Hyman Minsky haunts us all.

I tweeted about this, but it seems hilariously - after denying it was the case - the Four Horseman post heralded a crash. I wish I was informed about this by whatever deity convinced me to make the post then and there, but my PnL can attest that wasn't the case.
That said, I wanted to talk about some observations I made today, given our mini "Black Wednesday" today. Understandably, most of us are scared, and unlike Mr. October I honestly cannot predict the future (except possibly bad things, but that's a story for another time).
Looking backwards at October 12th specifically (the "top") an interesting and familiar pattern emerges:

https://preview.redd.it/74v1qisfgxv51.png?width=2656&format=png&auto=webp&s=156ec193599fa6434b43816bb0a6e98843eef2d9

https://preview.redd.it/r98zu6b8jxv51.png?width=705&format=png&auto=webp&s=6ca196b693e3cf40161bd3f958c55268df8c1ab7
Specifically, that date, we went parabolic, and NOPE_MAD (love or hate NOPE, it's just an indicator here) hit 4.5 sigma intraday. Given that we only started tracking SPY NOPE_MAD on 9/8/2020, this was the highest reading we have encountered so far.
In English what does this mean?
On October 12, 2020, the rally we observed was in large part driven by a delta squeeze caused by massive call buying. This is indicated by the magnitude of the NOPE_MAD (very high #) and direction (+ indicates a massive put/call imbalance, especially weighted by delta and compared to actual shares volume).
This tapered down closer to end of day, but still left us with a pretty elevated end of day reading (2.5).
Unfortunately, I thought that end of day was the panacea here given our analyses (which never were done on intraday data). I'm starting to think that's not the case - that the 4.5 we observed was just as much of a warning sign of irrational exuberance in the market as, well, what we observed in early September.
What did we observe in September?
In late August, we had just started observing NOPE on SPY. In the beginning, I only applied it to ER, because I thought the price decoherence aspect was critical to actually seeing an exerted effect. That said, we noticed very extreme EOD NOPE_MADs (we weren't tracking intraday unfortunately) during the week of 9/2. Including 9/2 itself. You may remember 9/2 as The Top, when SPY closed at 357.
On those days, SPY NOPE_MAD ended above 3 sigma (my magic threshold). That's very rare in our existing dataset, and indicates -- or at least heavily hints -- at what is called a Minsky Moment (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minsky_moment).
What happened 9/3? SPY plunged, and the bleak September we all know and love happened.
What's a dead economist have to do with this shit?
The simplest explanation is here, on our favorite wiki:
"According to the hypothesis, the rapid instability occurs because long periods of steady prosperity and investment gains encourage a diminished perception of overall market risk, which promotes the leveraged) risk of investing borrowed money instead of cash. The debt-leveraged financing of speculative investments exposes investors to a potential cash flow crisis, which may begin with a short period of modestly declining asset prices. In the event of a decline, the cash generated by assets is no longer sufficient to pay off the debt used to acquire the assets. Losses on such speculative assets prompt lenders to call in their loans. This rapidly amplifies a small decline into a collapse of asset values, related to the degree of leverage in the market. Leveraged investors are also forced to sell less-speculative positions to cover their loans. In severe situations, no buyers bid at prices recently quoted, fearing further declines. This starts a major sell-off, leading to a sudden and precipitous collapse in market-clearing asset prices, a sharp drop in market liquidity, and a severe demand for cash.[1][2]"
In general, the irrational exuberance of August (which led to a monthly 10% gain on $SPY) in retrospect was driven by a massive delta squeeze by Softbank and other players buying calls, forcing market makers to hedge positions by buying shares (I've discussed this in my previous posts).
The issue is when prices are driven solely by derivatives being exchanged, they have a tendency to unwind - once a call expires (usually worthless), the hedged shares are (in an ideal scenario - please don't @ me about how this happens in real life) sent back into the world, (usually) driving the price of the stock down. The problem - and the collapse of the Minsky Moment - occurs when the rally stops:
  1. Person A buys 100 calls on NKLA at 20 delta
  2. Market Maker writes those calls and buys 2000 shares to compensate.
  3. Price of NKLA goes up $5 (or whatever) and the market maker buys more shares in order to rehedge
  4. Person B sees the stock going up, and is like "Woah I better buy calls to chase the momo" so they buy 100 calls on NKLA at the higher price at 20 delta
  5. Market Maker buys another 2000 shares, pushing the price up further
This works fine as long as the price keeps increasing. However, in the face of a catalyst, like -- lockdowns? -- the music stops. Once the price of the stock goes down for whatever reason, this triggers a cascade by the same mechanism as earnings:
  1. NKLA goes down $5
  2. Person B's calls are now 0.01 delta, so the market maker sells off 1980 shares, further decreasing NKLA's price (as well as the re-hedge they did for Person A).
As you can imagine, this effectively becomes a feedback loop, magnifying the instability of the stock (and based on how indexes work, potentially the whole market). This is what we call a Minsky Moment correction.
---
And we're here now. Probably.
Also going to shamelessly plug twitter again, since I've been live tweeting things related to this during market hours: https://twitter.com/nope_its_lily
submitted by the_lilypad to thecorporation [link] [comments]


2020.10.29 01:06 DataLover2020 30 yr old SQL Server( I think) Extract

Hi all,
My company migrated from one relational db and dbms that was hosted onsite to a new db/dbms that's hosted by the vendor. This migration was done years before I joined the company and everyone who was involved in that migration is gone. There's no documentation on any of the migration process as far as we know and the old vendor is now out of business.
So.... Our IT guy's been keeping a copy of the old DB (I'll call it A-Sys) on our servers because for reasons we don't understand our current db (B-Sys) vendor didn't migrate over all the data from A-Sys and the company didn't want to lose the data, and occasionally they have one user who goes in A-Sys to check for data not in B-Sys. Well now our IT managers saying he needs to delete the server A-Sys is on because opening access to it is a security risk. I've been asked to extract any relevant data from the A-Sys and store it possibly in a way that's accessible through a more recent or secure DBMS. We seem to have backups of some of A-Sys's data, but I don't know what that data represents or if those files together make a complete backup. I think it would be safer to do a whole new full backup if possible).
I....have no idea where to even start here. I believe the platform A-Sys was built on is SQL Server which is why I'm posting here. We were migrated from A-Sys to B-Sys in 2011, A-Sys was made by a company that originated in the late 90's. So I suspect A-Sys is on a version of SQL server between 2000 and 2008.
I have alot of questions and I don't know if they all make sense, any help with an action plan would be greatly appreciated.
  1. Is there some sort of fundamentals course on SQL server I can take that's free or low cost and covers functionality present in all versions of SQL server? If so what do I need to learn how to do to safely make a backup of a DB into possibly another file format (like Acess or a ton of csv's(?))?
  2. Do I need to download and use some version of SQL server to get this data or is there some other tool I can/should use?
  3. Is it possible for me to extract portions of the db and store them in separate locations? I don't know if there's a storage space issue at play here, but if there is I'm thinking I could extract several dozen tables in batches and then concatenate things together if needed later.
  4. I currently don't have access to A-Sys in any form. Will I need a user account in the db to do a backup/extract of the data in it?
I can't think of anything else to ask.....
submitted by DataLover2020 to SQL [link] [comments]


2020.10.28 23:26 arnelg44 New y-chromosome data suggest that the first North-Saami babies were born no more than about 2000 years ago

https://www.saamidna.com
submitted by arnelg44 to biology [link] [comments]


2020.10.28 22:39 reader3477 They also serve, who only stand and wait

I'm wondering what kind of HDD capacity you all have sitting in cold data storage. Over the years I have made backups, rips, copies, backups of rips, more copies.... So by now, I have ten or more 6-TB hard drives just sitting in storage. Some of them are bulky blu-ray backups that have been ripped to mkv's. It seems kind of wasteful, but I don't want to buy a fabulously expensive tape backup solution that would cost more than replacing the blu-ray disks themselves. It seems like having $2000 in drives just rusting away is kinda painful.
How much drive capacity do you have sitting on the shelf? Should I buy some SMR's and move the stuff over?
submitted by reader3477 to homelab [link] [comments]


2020.10.28 22:38 doctorsirus Analysis: Does Robin charge you too much for house upgrades and how I concluded she is a diety.

Analysis: Does Robin charge you too much for house upgrades and how I concluded she is a diety.
Ever since a Let’s Play got me into Stardew Valley, I’ve fallen in love with the world. It’s something special, a place to relax and get away from the world’s problems. Here, you can pay bills with the sweat of your own brow, make friends, fall in love, and can escape the drudgery of modern life. It’s magical in its own way.
I’ve played hundreds of hours over multiple save files. I’ve been wondering one thing just recently, however. I remember when I first asked Robin for house upgrades and the sheer bowel-emptying amount she asked for. Seriously? That much for a kitchen? Now that I haven’t left my house for the past several weeks, fear human contact, and have deep dived into the paranormal, I’m overthinking something constantly: with regards to modern housework, does Robin the carpenter over or under charge you for her work?
To figure this out, it’s going to require a fair bit of math and a lot of guesswork. I’m going to have to establish a lot of ground rules but I’m going to try and be as accurate to real world costs as I can. We need to learn four things:
  • What year does the game take place so we can calculate accurate inflation?
  • What is the square footage of the house and its upgrades?
  • What is the exchange value of gold, the game’s currency?
  • What is the cost of Robin’s labor?
Let’s tackle the first. To do this, I scoured around to look for modern conveniences. Primarily, I found these five:
  • Leah mentions she has a laptop
  • The carpentry shop sells Plasma screen TVs.
  • There is what appears to be an old Apple computer monitor in Harvey’s clinic and Maru’s room.
  • Sam has an electric guitar and what looks like a plasma screen computer monitor in his room.
  • In Mr. Qi’s casino, the slot machines do not have a lever. This is important because that gives us a firm earliest date of 1963.
Another interesting factoid is the number of Cathode-ray TVs you see in Stardew Valley. These are the precursors to plasma screens, which were in turn succeeded by LCD screen TVs. Additionally, a large number of your starter houses comes preequipped with Cathode-ray TVs. Granted, this may be because the farmhouse was abandoned for many years before you came along, but there exists another such TV in 1 River Road where we often see George watching his shows. I will concede that George and Evelyn are quite old and may not have the tech savvy nature of Sebastian to get something more modern, so that can’t be an accurate measurement. Plus, Alex’s mental acumen is a little... questionable.
As for crafting recipes, there really isn’t anything worth talking about. Magic items I won’t talk about because it has no real world comparison; that also throws out the wizard shop’s items. The furniture catalog has nothing of note to pinepoint a date, and nor does Pierre’s General Store, Joja Mart, Joja Warehouse, the Blacksmith, Stardrop Saloon, or Marnie’s ranch. Leah doesn’t mention anything about her laptop, so that is of little help.
So the casino gives us a low bound. Although manufacturing of the plasma screen TV stopped in the US in 2014, plasma screen TVs were losing their market shares around 2007 and factories were shutting down. As you can buy them like hotcakes and fill a shed with them, 2007 is our upper bound.
The price for plasma screens was quite pricey for residential homes. 1995 was the year 42 inch plasma screens became commercial, and some had home installation priced somewhere around US$15,000. Still not quite the size of the queen or king sized bed you and your spouse have (the size of the plasma screen in the game), but sixty inch plasma screen TVs were sold around the year 2000, and that is plenty big. Given the size of the screen in the game is roughly three tiles just like your bed, I think it’s safe to say this is around the size of our estimate. Our rough year range is now 1995 to 2007. Let’s split the difference and say the game takes place in 2001.
We have our year.
To calculate the size of our farmhouse, we need some baseline measurement. Luckily, the game is pixelated so we can be quite accurate in our measurements. Unluckily, we have no confirmed height of anything, so we have to intuit some things. Reddit user asparagus made this excellent size chart, so while I can just use that and save myself a lot of work, let us do some measurements of our own and then measure the farmhouse with both this method and asparagus’ method.
First, there is the height of plants, but those can vary widely. For instance, you can pot prickly pear cactuses in your farmhouse, but their height can vary anywhere between one and seven feet. Plant height is a no go. The average height of a minifridge is forty three inches (109 cm) tall, so unless you are a dwarf, that’s not right either. The fences are also a good starting point, as most agricultural fencing stands at four feet (1.2 m).
Here we don’t have to do much; all fences are forty eight pixels in height. Four feet equals out to forty eight inches (121.92 cm). It doesn’t get more perfect than that!
Trigger warning: incoming math.
Now comes the really tricky part: getting the dimensions of each iteration of your farmhouse, and squinting at my computer screen like a mole in order to count pixels; we must include walls as well as that is included in square footage. Our first iteration has pixel measurements of 704x496. Add in the doorway (136x64pixels), and then we’ll still convert for square feet. 704 * 496 + (136 * 64) = 318,452 pixels/sq, which (dividing by 12^2) converts to 2,211.47 ft/sq. Damn, we’re well on our way for most modern mansions.
I have to have messed something up (205.45 m/sq, btw). The average firebox (the inside of a fireplace where you burn wood) tends to be around 32x20 inches (81.28x50.8 cm). Ours is... 72x40. Twice as large. I also haven’t even begun to calculate the farmhouse’s height because Robin is beginning to scare me.
Alright, new plan, we’re going with asparagus. I married Haley and took her measurements. She is 104 pixels tall, and since she is 65 inches (165.1 cm) according to asparagus, that gives us a measurement of .625 inches/pixel (1.5875 cm/pixel).
Side note, I really want some Twizlers right now.
So instead of having pixels as at a 1:1 ratio, we have something a little more lenient, but things are looking a little... grim. We’ll have to convert each individual amount, so we have (704 * .625) * (496 * .625) + ((136 * 64) * .625^2) for 124,395.31 inches/sq, 863.86 ft/sq., 80.25 m/sq. But still, we haven’t even begun to calculate the actual volume of our farmhouse yet, so these numbers are going to explode.
I’m beginning to think Robin is Hestia. Yoba is not the only deity in this town.
Alright, calculating the rest of the floor spaces is a little boring so let’s speedrun this.
Wall height for the farmhouse is 140 pixels, so (140 * .625) * 124,395.31 inches/sq / 12^3 = 6,298.95 ft^3 (178.36 m^3) for the farmhouse, and 25,800.51 ft^3 (730.58 m^3) using my method.
Just... let’s move on.
Second iteration has me doing a fair bit more work.
Wall height is 135 pixels, and rightmost—wait, the walls are shorter? Weird. Anyway, the rightmost room has dimensions of 486 for width by 375 for depth (and the same cubby dimensions), giving us cuboid dimensions of 24,603,750 pixels^3, which converts to 14,238.28 ft^3 (403.18 m^3), and 3,476.14 ft^3 (82.83 m^3) using asparagus' method
Middle corridor has a dimensional width of 42 pixels by 87 depth, giving us a total of 285.47 ft^3 (8.08 m^3), and 69.69 ft^3 (1.97 m^3) using asparagus' method.
Leftmost room (the kitchen) has a width of 870 and depth of 375, with a doorway of 136x64. That gives us a cuboid area of 314,019.38 ft^3 (29,173.11 m^3), and 6,388.74 ft^3 (180.91 m^3) using asparagus' method.
That gives us a grand total for a tier two home of...
... 328,543.13 ft^3 (29,584.37 m^3) using my method and
... 9,934.58 ft^3 (281.31 m^3) using asparagus' method.
So Robin added at a minimum 3,635.63 cubic feet to your house in three days by herself. Even if you extend the days and months to roughly align with our own calendar, that would be a mere nine days. How much powdered starfruit did she snort in order to do that by herself? I 100% believe Emily is the town’s dealer. I didn’t even calculate the length of the farmhouse loft. It’s doable, and even though you can’t enter it in the game, a bigger farmhouse means a bigger loft judging by the look of it.
Anyway, I’m not going to calculate the loft area right now. I’m not going to calculate the other tiers of your farmhouse either, even though that was my intent when I started this analysis. The math is easy enough, but it gets boring to type, and no doubt to read. Plus, I’m a little stunned by Robin's carpentry acumen. C’mon Robin, stop upgrading my house. Exercise with the girls, dance with your husband, smoke some weed, I dunno, RELAX.
But in a strange way, it makes a weird sort of sense. Pretty much no one plays the game with auto-run turned off, but do so for a moment. See how fast you move. That is your normal pace, and auto-run is you, an Olympian god, sprinting around town every second of every day, helping the shit out of everyone whether they want it or not, snorting the same starfruit mixture you got from Robin to keep going, who may have gotten it from Linus (my money is still on Emily). We’ve become so accustomed to seeing the run animation as our default I almost didn’t realize it doesn’t translate to modern life. The boards in your house, I almost took those as your normal 2x4 planks of wood (which actually measure 1.5x3.5, the world lies to me). They are not. They are almost the width of your entire body, and your walking pace (sorry I can’t get an exact pixel measurement) covers roughly one and a half boards, a similar length to a normal human gait. The art style fooled even me until now, but your house is massive.
Let’s just answer our other two questions. What is the exchange rate? Calculating the exchange rate of a fictional world is always tricky as they have different concepts of rarities, but I’ll give it the ol’ college try. Once again, I can’t do anything with magic. Let’s first list some things of note:
  • Iridium is fairly easy to get around Stardew Valley once you are able, and that is a rare and valuable metal, with a current price of US$1,510 per troy ounce.
  • You can purchase a golden column to place on your farm, and gold has a current price of US$1,643 per troy ounce
  • Conversely, while the first two are rare and valuable metals, crops such as corn are valued at prices like 150g, a very unusually high amount if exchanged 1:1 to USA dollars.
  • Going back to plasma screen TVs, we can use its price history and then convert currencies to Stardew Valley gold.
Now you may be tempted to say we can’t translate iridium and gold’s prices to real world market values, and normally you may be right, but there are some extenuating circumstances in the game: the town is right next to two very large mines. It is even a plot point once you clear the glittering boulder that the water carries ore from deep inside the mountain. Yes, gold and iridium are valuable, but your location to ore veins is important; gold and iridium may be uncommon resources but you have access to very specific places where they are more common, otherwise known as the scarcity heuristic). This also explains two facts about iridium: discounting magic, iridium is quite rare in the game, just like real life. Secondly, Clint’s prices make a lot more sense not only because it’s endgame material, but because iridium is super dense and has a very high melting point, thus making it a very difficult material to work with.
But by far the biggest challenge of this question is figuring out whether or not items you produce factor in the cost of your labor or not. For instance, lace is made of simple materials that even in the days of Victorian England, it was easy to get. However because lace was so time consuming to make, it could command absurd prices. Thus, one of the first things we need to discover is whether or not the game takes into account cost of labor or not.
So I am going to take you all back to school and talk about someone who’s old and dead: Adam Smith. It was he who talked about the cost of labor in his book The Wealth of Nations, and because of that, I bring up this particular line:
“...From century to century, corn is a better measure than silver, because, from century to century, equal quantities of corn will command the same quantity of labour more nearly than equal quantities of silver.
Why did I mention corn above? This is why. Prices may vary, but agriculture has been around for thousands of years and the cost of a farmer’s labor equals about the same.
According to Dylan Baumann, Stardew Valley corn plants have a profit value of 535 gold per plant. Our corn plant profits are about as high as they can get without adding something new into the mix, and we don’t want that yet.
Let’s set some ground rules:
  • Cultivatable farm space on the standard farm equals out to 3,427 spaces, but we’ll round that down to 3,350 for iridium sprinklers, iridium watering can, and scarecrows, equaling maximum farming with no loss of crop.
  • We’ll keep Dylan’s ground rules, so no fertilizer.
  • No preserves, jams, wine, and juices.
  • No farming efficiencies and crop selling bonuses.
  • No use of the greenhouse to grow crops outside of the growing season.
If you plant the entire farm with corn and stop harvesting on Fall day 28 when the growing season ends, that lets you harvest a total of 11 ears of corn per plant. Multiply that by 3,350, we get a total of 36,850 ears of corn for your entire farm. Corn is measured in bushels, and a bushel of corn can be anywhere between 40 and 60 ears of corn, but we’ll say you really pack it in for 60, meaning your growing season for corn produces 36,850 / 60 corn for a total of 614.17 bushels per year.
The USDA has a 2001 labor value of corn at US$2.92 per acre (and that matches the Iowa labor statistic), and using 156 bushels per acre, that brings our labor cost per bushel at... US$00.02. That’s a real pittance. Considering bushels of corn retailed around $2.11 per bushel in 2001, that is an incredible markup of 184.85 times.
We’re almost done with the dreaded math, I swear.
Corn retails at 100g apiece in Stardew Valley(You get 50 gold from Pierre, so he has a 100% markup), meaning the labor cost should be around 184.85 times less that amount, meaning it takes about 0.54 gold to make one ear of corn.
Your average US farmers salary $55,000 and $100,000, and we’ll take the middle of $77,500 for our measurements. Dividing the farmer’s salary by the total ears of corn our farmer grows in Stardew Valley, we get a labor cost per ear of corn in US dollars of $2.10 per ear of corn. Now we multiply this by our markup ratio to get the IRL retail cost of corn in Stardew, getting US$237.08! Damn that better be some good eating! We divide that number by the Stardew Valley retail cost of corn, netting us a real world conversion of gold of, drumroll please, $2.37 US dollars per gold in 2001.
Now just for funzies, let us calculate the actual salary of your famer in Stardew Valley. Multiplying your 36,850 ears of corn by 50 gold (your selling price of gold, not the retail price of 100g), that nets you 1,842,500 gold per growing season. Multiply that by the dollagold conversion we just calculated and your real life gross income comes out to be US$436,672,500.
Give me all of the golden clocks, wizard.
Three questions down, one more to go. Currency conversion was rather tricky because it involved quite a lot of math, but this last question, what is the cost of Robin’s labor, that requires the most assumptions. There’s an easy answer and a hard answer.
Robin’s upgrades, except for the last, require you the farmer to give her resources in addition to gold. The simple answer is you are providing materials in order to keep the raw gold cost down. This means that the first house upgrade, 10,000 gold, is strictly her labor cost as the 450 wood is all the raw materials she needs to build. 3 days * 3 months (to adjust Stardew month lengths to our month lengths) comes out to Robin working an IRL equivalent to 9 days. Taking 10,000 gold / 9 days equals a cost of 1,111.111 gold per day, and considering Robin has snorted enough powdered starfruit to have 20 hour work days, that comes out to 55.56 gold per hour.
Just to be sure, let’s see if the math holds up for the last upgrade. That one requires a cost of 100,000 gold and comes preequipped with 33 casks. You do not provide the resources for the casks, meaning that comes included with the cost. Casks cannot be sold, but the materials required to make them are 20 wood and 1 hardwood, which Robin will provide for the same 100% markup (meaning 4 gold and 30 gold respectively). 4 gold * 30 gold * 33 casks comes out to 3,960 gold. Using the same calculations for the first house iteration, we get (100,000 gold - 3,960) / (3 days * 3 months) / 20 hours for a total of 533.56 gold per hour.
Not even close to our first estimate. We could just average them together for (533.56 + 55.56) / 2 = 294.56 gold, and that would be the easy answer. It would be nice to settle for the easy answer.
Let’s find the hard answer. We are going to calculate labor cost per square footage, and luckily most of the work has been done over the course of several google spreadsheets. To find the cost of materials and money per upgrade volume we get the formula (Upgrade volume - Base Volume) / 10,000 gold. This gives us a grand total of cubic material built per gold of...
...2,573.26 in^3/gold, 30.27 ft^3/gold, 2.89 m^3/gold using my method and
...628.24 in^3/gold, 0.36 ft^3/gold, 0.01 m^3/gold using asparagus’ method.
Let’s see if the math holds up for the basement upgrade and dammit I just realized I got to do more pixel measurements now. Hold on, be back in an hour.
Alright, I’m back. We don’t need to do any subtraction for the previous volume of the house considering the cellar is its own little area, but we still need to subtract the value of the materials used for the casks. The cellar comes out to a grand total of cubic materials built per gold of...
...386.91 in^3/gold, 0.22 ft^3/gold, 0.01 m^3/gold using my method and
...94.46 in^3/gold, 0.05 ft^3/gold, 0.0015 m^3/gold using asparagus’ method.
Huge discrepancy.
Before I get into my reasoning why, let us outline what we know first.
  • We’re pretty sure the game takes place in 2001.
  • We have the exact sizes of each house upgrade calculated with two different methods.
  • We have a certified exchange rate of US$2.37 at that point in time.
  • We have two different methods of calculating the cost of Robin’s labor.
  • The amount of work Robin does during her three(nine?) day job is absolutely obscene.
I come to one conclusion: Robin is a god that has settled down in the world of Stardew Valley.
Here me out. I have three pieces of evidence.
The first is when Robin is hired to take on a house upgrade job no one helps her, not even her husband Demetrius. Your house is right next to hers, so you’re not paying for travel. As we have shown by our calculations above and in the gDoc spreadsheet, that is a massive amount of work. It’s simply not possible for a human to accomplish such a monumental task. Robin claims she built her own home herself with this line from the game...
“Have I told you that I built our house from the ground up? It's definitely been the highlight of my career so far.”
...so we know her carpentry acumen is impressive enough for the job, but she has severely understated her skill. Homeadvisor pegs a house costing anywhere between US$150,000 to US$500,000 (US$102,005.53 to $340,018.44, adjusted for 2001 inflation), but even adjusted for inflation, Robin absolutely underbids the current housing market. Those inflation adjusted values, when converted to gold, come out to a range of 43,040.31g-143,467.70g. Granted, these prices are for a complete house, not adding onto a current house, but even if we half the value you are getting one hell of a discount.
The second piece is Robin’s language. The sheer passion for her work speaks wonders..
“Wood is a wonderful substance... it's versatile, cheap, strong, and each piece has its own unique character!”
...but perhaps she is just passionate about what she does. Many people are, but knowing what we do about how dirt cheap and blindingly fast she works let’s go into more detail about some things, specifically three lines. The first...
“Our little plan worked out well, don't you think? Pam and Penny seem really happy.”
...is said after Pam’s house undergoes an upgrade. “Our” plan? Sure, you are the one that buys the upgrade and Robin has to build it, but I can’t help but feel there is a double meaning behind this language. It is done out of the kindness of Robin’s heart and the materials have to come from somewhere, so she can’t do it for free, but it wasn’t about the money, as we have stated previously. It was about Penny.
Pam is a somewhat contentious person because of slobbish and slovenly nature. She is immediately and irrationally angered when Penny tries to pick the place up. She drinks heavily...
“\sigh*... My mother definitely has a problem with going to the saloon too much. But it's best not to dwell on bad things, right?”*
...doesn’t seem to understand not paying her tab has some consequences, and doesn’t realize what her habits have done to her daughter’s psyche.
Then you, the player come along. Pam is okay with the simple things in life, but you help Penny with her worries and insecurities, and then with you and Robin together, you give Penny everything she needs to help her shed those worries. She has a house that doesn have problems with rain, two friends who look out for her, her mom has a job, and most importantly she has peace of mind and in a world fraught with problems, that is truly priceless.
This is the second line...
“Hey! I heard some weird noises last night, and woke up this morning to find the quarry bridge completely repaired! It's a miracle of woodworking!”
...and it occurs once you offer items to the community center junimos to get the quarry bridge repaired.
It is also a bald-faced lie.
The junimos are good, don’t get me wrong, but we’ve seen what Robin can do with our own two eyes. She is absolutely incredible at her job, and while I may give it to her she has no idea what junimos are or what they are capable of, we have proof that the act of restoring the bridge in one night is not out of the realm of possibility for her. A miracle, yes, but I’m certain she can beat the junimos’ time.
Lastly, there is one quote from her that is just... it opens up some very interesting questions. When she says...
“My parents were bewildered when I told them I wanted to be a carpenter. They were pretty old-fashioned.”
...how old are her parents when they consider carpentry too new-fashioned for them? Carpentry is one of the world’s oldest professions. If they were old-fashioned, why were they bewildered?
This line is just so fascinating to me. Robin is incredibly skilled, but I cannot rationalize carpentry being too newfangled for parents to wrap their head around. Who were they? Where are they from? I know your secrets, Robin, I know your parents are gods, too.
The third and final piece is the contrasting pieces of the world at large. Just like ours, it’s a little depressing. Joja Corp runs dozens of what even Cyberpunk would consider a dataslave farm. The world is flooded with consumerism run amok, Orwellian surveillance, and rampant urbanization. The Ferngill Republic is in the middle of a war with the Gotoro Empire and Kent still suffers PTSD from being in a prisoner of war camp.
Stardew Valley isn’t just a town to retire in, it is a place of respite and healing. There are three confirmed magic users deeply tied to the town’s mystical roots. The bears speak and encourage you to manage the world around you. You are rewarded for restoring balance to the valley by being able to recycle things you don’t need. Your main resource in the game, gold, also doesn’t matter that much; if it ever slips into the negative, nothing bad ever happens. You must just work to raise it back up. There is no lose condition in the game.
In many respects it is similar to the Gaiaism philosophy that all living beings are connected, each relying and depending on each other in order to maintain a peaceful coexistence. You help Shane with his nihilism and depression, Sebastian with his ability to express and accept affection, Sam with his dreams, Kent with his problems, Leah with her ambitions, Haley with her generosity and narcissism, or even simple goals like Penny’s idea of a quiet domestic life.
Whether it is the addicted, lost, or scorned, everyone is welcome and everyone can have a home in Stardew Valley. No one embodies this more than Robin who just wants a simple life. Whether it is her own house or her own boat during the Dance of the Moonlight Jellies, Robin builds it herself. The feel of wood grain, the smell of lacquer, the stickiness of stain, the thrum of the saw, and the bite of the axe. Robin doesn’t charge you nearly enough for your house upgrades because it is not about the money. Woodworking is what she loves and she lives in a place where barterism, kindness, family, and friendship substitute so many of life's modern problems and inconveniences.
Friendship increases in the game aren’t just a measurement of achievements, a means of getting more recipes, or more candles lit on a grave. You are making friends and getting to know these people for who they are and everyone’s life is bettered because of it. The amount of love I’ve seen for Linus is just staggering. Shane, in all of his melancholy and despite him not being a suitor in the original version of the game, is loved by so many. I know some despise Haley, but I love that I was able to show her what kindness can do for people.
You are in a gentle and loving place, and you are loved.
What a better place for a god to reside? A quiet town filled with peace and love, seeped in nature and the old magics of yore. A loving mate, a family to raise. Land to share with those that forage from its bounty. It’s all she needs.
Robin’s role in all of this? She desires neither worship nor admiration. She is just a friend. A god, certainly, but a friend first and foremost who is just settling down in a quiet town looking for a little peace.

https://preview.redd.it/fkugiuh4nwv51.png?width=507&format=png&auto=webp&s=146d3dabaa63c0ce3bfd281712434e9b2a655be8
Image by MagicallyClueless
submitted by doctorsirus to StardewValley [link] [comments]


2020.10.28 22:07 KaPunaWikiWiki Help me diagnose my lean condition

This looks like the right subreddit for my question.. I know my torque wrench from my 12 point socket and am now finally getting to work on my own car too. Would generally like to learn how to do something myself so I can fix it when it goes wrong instead of getting stranded.
Logs:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1BlJpz6ShS_J6JMcLqEtvLi4TjlRZx6UP9Xxxj-lVGPU/edit?usp=sharing
Since the last time I filled up I am getting P0171 errors (filled with E10, It is an EUDM 2000 Corolla with a 3zzfe so it should be able to handle up to 15% ethanol). I don't want to assume it's the fuel as it could clearly be coincidental.
With a datalogger and OBD dongle, I have some logs that seem to rule out a vacuum leak as fuel trims increase with rpm/throttle position/MAF flow rate. I have already cleaned the MAF which made a small improvement but not enough. The raw data is available above as are some charts (Scaling is all wrong in the charts, but it is easier to see correlation that way).
If it were your cayour problem, what would you do from here to diagnose?

P.s. This era of corolla have returnless fuel system, fuel filter is part of the pump assembly in the tank. I am considering testing the fuel pump circuit to see if there is voltage drop somewhere. Any other multimeter tests are fair game too.
submitted by KaPunaWikiWiki to MechanicAdvice [link] [comments]


2020.10.28 20:52 acornscorn Hopefully Simple

I'm essentially looking for help making a Vlookup formula in Libre Calc I have 2 sheets containing data, one has over 2000 entries and the other has about half. Both are outputs relating to similar data and have a shared ID column. Since Sheet1 has info I need for Sheet 2 I need a way I can compare both sheets, then only highlight the cells in Sheet1 that have a matching ID in sheet 2. Then I can just grab the info from the necessary rows rather than going through 2000 entries manually
submitted by acornscorn to libreoffice [link] [comments]


2020.10.28 19:29 sheldonalpha5 India's Hunger Pangs - EPW Editorial

***This is the state that is coming for the land of the people of Kashmir. With land comes dignity, the coloniser is coming for it; and yes, like all colonisers this coloniser too will wrap its colonising practices with the veneer of religion.***

India’s Hunger Pangs

The NDA government’s record in controlling hunger is dismal despite rising stocks of cereal.
The Global Hunger Index (GHI) 2020, which ranks India 94 among 107 nations, has once again brought to the fore the government’s failure to provide adequate food to a substantial segment of the population despite rising stocks of cereals. The GHI—which captures three dimensions of hunger, including undernourishment of the people, child undernutrition and child mortality—uses four indicators, namely the share of people with insufficient calorie intake, share of children below five years with low weight to height ratio (wasting) and low height for age ratio (stunting), and child mortality rates to measure hunger. What makes India’s low GHI ranking especially rankling is that it is lower than that of its neighbours like Pakistan (ranked 88), Myanmar (ranked 78), Bangladesh (ranked 75), Nepal (ranked 73) and Sri Lanka (ranked 64). And India’s GHI score of 27.2 is far behind that of the top-ranked 17 nations, all scoring below five, including those of Bric countries like Brazil and China, ranked third and fifth.
Most trends in GHI scores show that the gap between India and its neighbours is increasing in many cases. For instance, the GHI reports for 2000 and 2020 show that India’s GHI score has improved by 0.1% to 27.2, while that of Pakistan has improved by 33.9% to 24.6, and that of Bangladesh by 40.2% to 20.4. And these trends are especially galling for the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) government as the improvements in India’s GHI scores have decelerated sharply during its tenure. The data shows India’s GHI score improved by 8.2 points, that is, by 21.9%, in the period under the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) rule, while the improvements decelerated sharply by 2.1 points or by 7.2% under the NDA government.
A closer look at the constraints limiting India’s GHI score provides interesting insights. Among the four indicators used by the GHI, India’s biggest gain in the last two decades is in the share of morta­lity rates of children under five years, which fell by almost two-thirds to 3.7%, followed by the decline in shares of stunted children and undernourished population, which fell by around one-third and by a quarter to touch 34.7% and 14%, respectively. However, despite these gains, India’s share of wasted children even increased marginally by 1.2% over the last two decades to go up to 17.3%.
And the progress under the NDA government has been especially dismal. While the share of undernourished population and wasted and stunted children went down by 17.7%, 24.5% and 19% during the UPA years, the pace of improvement decelerated under the NDA regime with the numbers falling to 14.1%, 14.6% and 10.3%, respectively. It was only in the case of the mortality rate of children under five years that the NDA government has been able to marginally improve performance, with the fall accelerating from 26.8% under UPA rule to 28.8%.
But, then, why is India’s GHI score so poor despite the huge food stocks and the extensive public food distribution network, which is the largest social protection programme in the world, providing subsidised cereals to 800 million people? The answer to this is that government programmes to ensure food security have singularly focused on providing an energy-sufficient diet rather than a nutritious diet or healthy diet. And low per capita incomes make a nutritious or healthy diet unaffordable to a majority of the people. In fact, calculations made by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) for India show that an energy-sufficient diet costs $0.79 per capita per day as compared to $1.9 for a nutrient-adequate diet and $3.41 for a healthy diet.
And the FAO data shows that, while the share of India’s population unable to afford an energy-sufficient diet has shrunk to just 0.9%, the share of people unable to afford a nutrient-adequate diet is a large 39.1% and those unable to afford a healthy diet is a much higher 77.9%. This clearly shows that the government has to refocus on food security strategies and roll out programmes to ensure an affordable nutrient-adequate diet in the medium term and a healthy diet in the longer term. This can be achieved only by substantially reworking the food production targets to meet the increasing nutrient needs.
But a government report on food and nutrition security last year clearly shows that the recent changes in the food consumption pattern have only accentuated the nutrient deficiency. Most recent numbers show that among three major nutrients, only the per capita per day consumption of fat is increasing. Both per capita per day energy consumption and protein consumption have declined and intake is still behind the Indian Council of Medical Research-recommended norms in most cases in both rural and urban India.
Similarly, while the share of expenditure on cereals in total food expenditure has declined in both rural and urban areas, the increase in consumption of more nutritive food is rather meagre. While the share of expenditure on milk and milk products, egg, fish, and meat in total food expenditure has gone up marginally by 2–3 percentage points, the spending on pulses, a major source of protein, has almost remained stagnant in both urban and rural areas, while that on vegetables, fruits, and nuts has even declined in rural areas. And the sharper price increases of nutritive foods, like pulses, vegetables, milk, egg, meat and fish, as compared to that of cereals during the decade have also made them less affordable.
Clearly, this calls for reworking the food production strategies and ensuring adequate food to meet the growing nutrient deficiency. This is a huge challenge that has to be surmounted to build a healthier nation and move up the GHI rankings.
submitted by sheldonalpha5 to Mulk_e_Kashmir [link] [comments]


2020.10.28 19:17 papapatty11 Keeping track of betting lines is a pain

Hey everyone! I've been really geeking out on finding problems that I think could be turned into meaningful businesses. I do have an ask, but before I do that I'll provide some value first :)

Keeping track of betting lines is a pain

“I love sports betting but it’s hard to keep track of the betting odds on all the different betting apps. I’ve created a spreadsheet and do it manually, but I still need to search through all the sites to get the information. I’d definitely pay for something that did this automatically.” - Anonymous sports better seeking a solution.
Market Background/Opportunity Size:
Changes in sports betting law have created amazing entrepreneurial opportunities! It's like the goldrush here given how young this market is and how quickly things are changing in the US.
On May 14, 2018, the United States supreme court ruled the federal law prohibiting states from authorizing sports betting, protection act PASPA, unconstitutional. It is now up to individual states to decide if they want to authorize and regulate sports betting in their state. 18 states have fully legalized sports betting with 4 more passing bills just this year to legalize it (they aren’t operational yet).
Even though less than half of the US has legalized sports betting, the market cap was sitting pretty at $104.41 billion and expected to reach $155.49 billion by 2024 (this is an estimate, it was tough to nail down). This market is much larger if you include other global players like the UK, Australia, etc… who have already legalized sports betting. It’s clear that trends for this industry are going in the right direction and there’s still a strong opportunity for the first-mover advantage to take place.
Major Players:
Note: there are over 100 sports betting services on the market
The Opportunity:
As mentioned above, there is a huge problem with keeping track of all the different betting lines that exist - resulting in many people (unsuccessfully) using a spreadsheet. Here’s an article that explains why tracking betting lines is important.
The TL;DR is this, placing your bet on a site that has the most favorable odds results in you getting the highest return on that investment. Most people are doing one of these two things:
  1. Nothing. Rather than checking to see where they can get the best returns, they are just using their core betting app and taking the odds they are given. Depending on the bet size, that leaves hundreds of dollars on the table.
  2. Manually tracking the odds each betting site is offering and compiling the odds in a spreadsheet. This results in a lot of time spent switching between sites and transposing numbers.
Current Solutions:
How to Get Your First 10 Customers:
  1. Define Your Early Adopter: Your TAM is anyone who participates in sports betting, but I’d focus your efforts on finding people who acutely experience this pain. People who are spending a lot of time and money on sports betting have the most to lose. More specifically, hunt for people who’ve already created solutions to this problem themselves - like those using homegrown spreadsheets.
  2. Look for CDIs: When looking for channels to find potential users I ask myself “where do my potential customers hang out?”. In this case, I’d look at online communities like Sports Book and Sports Betting subreddits. By simply asking the question, “How do you track betting lines?” you’ll be able to start conversations with potential users about unmet needs.
  3. Create an Online Ad: I’d next test an offer to see if you can acquire potential users to sign up for your service. This can be as simple as creating a landing page (using marketing language from the conversations above) and run a paid ad to your target audience to collect emails.
  4. Build a Wizard of Oz Test: Now that you have a list from running the ad above, I’d see if you can monetize it. Contact people and charge a small fee to run a small wizard of oz test - you could manually pull lines based on the bets they're watching and send it to them in a daily email. Or, there’s likely a no-code tool you could use to scrape the data from existing sites and organize it for them.
I can see a freemium model working for this as well, so you may not need to monetize immediately. One great option would be to charge the bookmakers a fee for every bet you send to their platform.
Challenges:
Additional Opportunities:
There appears to be no shortage of companies trying to become the next big bookmakers. But, there’s plenty of opportunities this burgeoning market has opened up beyond just being a bookie. With this market in its infancy, you can bet (pun 100% intended) that there’s going to be a lot of room to expand your offerings. Whether it be sports betting tips, predictions, tools or even becoming a bookie yourself, there’s money to be made here.
While doing research on this, I found many people are struggling with keeping track of their bets and recording their results. This could be an easy addition to a solution to tracking betting lines. Here’s what some people said -
https://imgur.com/a/aPTXuBd
Here’s my ask - I’m looking for feedback on whether posts like these are valuable enough to turn into a business. I’d like to send out a vetted problem/idea like this each week if there’s enough interest.
If you would like posts like these each week (and pay a small fee), please either DM me or reach out to [[email protected]](mailto:[email protected]). If you reach out, I’ll give you another free problem/idea as thanks for your time!
submitted by papapatty11 to AppIdeas [link] [comments]


2020.10.28 18:58 RetdThx2AMD Some Background and Thoughts on FPGAs

I have been lurking on this board for a few years. I decided the other day to finally create an account so I could come out of lurk mode. As you might guess from my id I was able to retire at the beginning of this year on a significantly accelerated timetable thanks to the 20x return from my AMD stock and option investments since 2016.
I spent my career working on electronics and software for the satellite industry. We made heavy use of FPGAs and more often than not Xilinx FPGAs since they had a radiation tolerant line. I thought I would summarize some of the ways they were used in and around the development process. My experience is going to be very different than the datacenter settings in the last few years. The AI and big data stuff was a pipe dream back then.
In the olden times of the 90s we used CPUs which unlike modern processors did not include much in the way of I/O and memory controller. The computer board designs graduated from CPU + a bunch of ICs (much like the original IBM PC design) to a CPU + Xilinx FPGA + RAM + ROM and maybe a 5V or 3.3V linear voltage regulator. Those old FPGAs were programmed before they were soldered to the PCB using a dedicated programming unit attached to a PC. Pretty much the same way ROMs were programmed. At the time FPGAs gate capacity was small enough that it was still feasible to design their implementation using schematics. An engineer would draw up logic gates and flip-flops just like you would if using discrete logic ICs and then compile it to the FPGA binary and burn it to the FPGA using a programmer box like a ROM. If you screwed it up you had to buy another FPGA chip, they were not erasable. The advantage of using the FPGA is that it was common to implement a custom I/O protocol to talk to other FPGAs, on other boards, which might be operating A/D and D/A converters and digital I/O driver chips. As the FPGA gate capacities increased the overall board count could be decreased.
With the advent of much larger FPGAs that were in-circuit re-programmable they began to be used for prototyping ASIC designs. One project I worked on was developing a radiation hardened PowerPC processor ASIC with specialized I/O. A Xilinx FPGA was used to test the implementation at approximately half-speed. The PowerPC core was licensed IP and surrounded with bits that were developed in VHDL. In the satellite industry the volumes are typically not high enough to warrant developing ASICs but they could be fabbed on a rad-hard process while the time large capacity re-programmable FPGAs were not. Using FPGAs for prototyping the ASIC was essential because you only had one chance to get the ASIC right, it was cost and schedule prohibitive to do any respins.
Another way re-programmable FPGAs were used was for test equipment and ground stations. The flight hardware had these custom designed ASICs of all sorts which generally created data streams that would transmitted down from space. It was advantageous to test the boards without the full set of downlink and receiver hardware so a commercial FPGA board in a PC would be used to hook into the data bus in place of the radio. Similarly other test equipment would be made which emulated the data stream from the flight hardware so that the radio hardware could be tested independently. Finally the ground stations would often use FPGAs to pull in the digital data stream from the receiver radio and process the data in real-time. These FPGAs were typically programmed using VHDL but as tools progressed it became possible to program to program the entire PC + FPGA board combination using LabView or Simulink which also handled the UI. In the 2000s it was even possible to program a real-time software defined radio using these tools.
As FPGAs progressed they became much more sophisticated. Instead of only having to specify whether an I/O pin was digital input or output you could choose between high speed, low speed, serdes, analog etc. Instead of having to interface to external RAM chips they began to include banks of internal RAM. That is because FPGAs were no longer just gate arrays but included a quantity of "hard-core" functionality. The natural progression of FPGAs with hard cores brings them into direct competition with embedded processor SOCs. At the same time embedded SOCs have gained flexibility with I/O pin assignment which is very similar to what FPGAs allow.
It is important to understand that in the modern era of chip design the difference between the teams that AMD and Xilinx has for chip design is primarily at the architecture level. Low level design and validation are going to largely be the same (although they may be using different tools and best practices). There are going to be some synergies in process and there is going to be some flexibility in having more teams capable of bringing chips to market. They are going to be able to commingle the best practices between the two which is going to be a net boost to productivity for one side or the other or both. Furthermore AMD will have access to Xilinx FPGAs for design validation at cost and perhaps ahead of release and Xilinx will be able to leverage AMD's internal server clouds. The companies will also have access to a greater number of Fellow level architects and process gurus. Also AMD has internally developed IP blocks that Xilinx could leverage and vice versa. Going forward there would be savings on externally licensed IP blocks as well.
AI is all the rage these days but there are many other applications for generic FPGAs and for including field programmable gates in sophisticated SOCs. As the grand convergence continues I would not be surprised at all to see FPGA as much a key component to future chips as graphics are in an APU. If Moore’s law is slowing down then the ability to reconfigure the circuitry on the fly is a potential mitigation. At some point being able to reallocate the transistor budget on the fly is going to win out over adding more and more fixed functionality. Going a bit down the big.little path what if a core could be reconfigured on the fly to be integer heavy or 64 bit float heavy within the same transistor budget. Instead of dedicated video encodedecoders or AVX 512 that sits dark most of the time the OS can gin it up on demand. In a laptop or phone setting this could be a big improvement.
If anybody has questions I'd be happy to answer. I'm sure there are a number of other posters here with a background in electronics and chip design who can weigh in as well.
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2020.10.28 18:51 ahriman1911 The Mother of All Options Backtests

I’ve been obsessed with finding a successful system to improve my results selling options. I purchased the Signals report from Option Alpha and I was impressed how tweaking a few settings on some of the most common technical indicators could lead to amazing results. And the fact that some indicators gave win rates of 80-90% is pretty amazing to see.
Still, I felt the backtests they did was lacking. While that report helps orient you as to indicators that give an overall feel for overbought or oversold levels, it isn’t specifically applied to an options strategy. And it seems almost all indicators they tested were trend reversal instead of trend-following. I was very disappointed, since this is an options service and the backtests were all built on buying and selling stocks instead of buying or selling options.
So, I’ve decided to conduct the mother of all backtests. Before I explain the methodology, here is an example of the backtest I would conduct for two common strategies that many people do here on /r Options:
“Wheeling” Naked Puts
Let’s assume we’re selling naked puts, 30 days out: I’d like to know what indicators (and the corresponding settings) are most likely to give me the highest win rate over 30 days. I don’t care about indicators that show the biggest upward movement in the underlying. I only care about indicators show the underlying being at least slightly above where I sold my put option over a 30 day period.
Iron Condors
If I’m selling 45 day iron condors I want to know what indicators give the highest probability for low to no movement upward or downward in the underlying over my holding period.
Backtesting Methodology
The way I plan on backtesting is through machine learning. I have a close friend who’s a data scientist and he’s outlined the proper way to do this. You can’t use machine learning algorithms solely on price data. That has been attempted numerous times and there are no machine learning algorithms that can predict future price movements based solely on past price data. But you can modify the inputs on all the different technical indicators (as well as indicators on indicators, i.e. is the slope of the RSI going up or down) to find out which indicators and settings produce the most optimized results for the desired result you are trying to obtain.
I’ve spent dozens of hours doing backtests on tradingview and optionstack and it always seemed nuts for me to be tweaking all the settings, running the test again and again and then jotting down the results. The computer should do all that for me. The same thing about trade management. Does it make sense to close trades at 25%, 50%, 80%, let the computer figure that out. At the end of the project I’ll have the best technical indicators, fully optimized for each options strategy, for each underlying or group of underlyings.
The backtester needs to be self-optimizing. For a specific options strategy on a specific ticker, we want to know which technical indicators (or combination of indicators and their settings) give the most reliable/profitable entries.
The Plan
What I plan on doing is hiring a data scientist to do the work and create automated backtests using the most common technical indicators available. I’ll use the signals report and their backtests as a starting point. But the backtest is going to be based on option strategies, not stock strategies. I can get 20 years of historical options price data for about $2000. And hiring a data scientist for this project is going to cost about $10,000 for 6 months of work. And then we need the server time from Amazon. That’s going to be another $1000 at least. It might be more depending on how much computing power we end up using.
Take Part
I’m willing to invest $5000 of my on money into this project, but I’d like to know if anyone else out there might like to help collaborate? I know no one wants to just give money to some guy on the internet, but assuming anyone else feels this is a valuable project and would be willing to contribute, I’ll bootstrap this and get it up and running myself at my own expense and make sure we put everything we do on a private website/YouTube for everyone who decides to participate can follow our progress. So if you decide to help out and want to see our results, you’ll see it up and running long before I ask anyone for a dime.
And of course we can develop the backtests that contributors want to see on the symbols they want to use. If there are a lot of people interested in helping I think we could even get a web interface so that people can schedule their own backtests for the system to run.
Please let me know if you're interested or if you have any ideas to contribute.
submitted by ahriman1911 to options [link] [comments]


2020.10.28 18:19 ForeverAFatFk Selling Used (Practically New) Car

I'm looking for input on where to get the most for a car that I'm looking to sell. It's a 2020 BMW X1 xDrive that has less than 2000 miles. Although I know it's used, it's practically new. I've been trying to go through those "instant offer" services, but most of them won't process it due to it being too new (guessing they don't have the data for a proper offer). The only one that did process was offering me something like $14k.
I'm looking for either a straight sale but would be okay with a trade-in as long as it's not a terribly low amount. Any help appreciated.
submitted by ForeverAFatFk to nova [link] [comments]


2020.10.28 17:51 papapatty11 Looking for a startup idea? Here's a problem to solve

Hey everyone! I've been really geeking out on finding problems that I think could be turned into meaningful businesses. I do have an ask, but before I do that I'll provide some value first :)

Keeping track of betting lines is a pain

“I love sports betting but it’s hard to keep track of the betting odds on all the different betting apps. I’ve created a spreadsheet and do it manually, but I still need to search through all the sites to get the information. I’d definitely pay for something that did this automatically.” - Anonymous sports better seeking a solution.
Market Background/Opportunity Size:
Changes in sports betting law have created amazing entrepreneurial opportunities! It's like the goldrush here given how young this market is and how quickly things are changing in the US.
On May 14, 2018, the United States supreme court ruled the federal law prohibiting states from authorizing sports betting, protection act PASPA, unconstitutional. It is now up to individual states to decide if they want to authorize and regulate sports betting in their state. 18 states have fully legalized sports betting with 4 more passing bills just this year to legalize it (they aren’t operational yet).
Even though less than half of the US has legalized sports betting, the market cap was sitting pretty at $104.41 billion and expected to reach $155.49 billion by 2024 (this is an estimate, it was tough to nail down). This market is much larger if you include other global players like the UK, Australia, etc… who have already legalized sports betting. It’s clear that trends for this industry are going in the right direction and there’s still a strong opportunity for the first-mover advantage to take place.
Major Players:
Note: there are over 100 sports betting services on the market
The Opportunity:
As mentioned above, there is a huge problem with keeping track of all the different betting lines that exist - resulting in many people (unsuccessfully) using a spreadsheet. Here’s an article that explains why tracking betting lines is important.
The TL;DR is this, placing your bet on a site that has the most favorable odds results in you getting the highest return on that investment. Most people are doing one of these two things:
  1. Nothing. Rather than checking to see where they can get the best returns, they are just using their core betting app and taking the odds they are given. Depending on the bet size, that leaves hundreds of dollars on the table.
  2. Manually tracking the odds each betting site is offering and compiling the odds in a spreadsheet. This results in a lot of time spent switching between sites and transposing numbers.
Current Solutions:
How to Get Your First 10 Customers:
  1. Define Your Early Adopter: Your TAM is anyone who participates in sports betting, but I’d focus your efforts on finding people who acutely experience this pain. People who are spending a lot of time and money on sports betting have the most to lose. More specifically, hunt for people who’ve already created solutions to this problem themselves - like those using homegrown spreadsheets.
  2. Look for CDIs: When looking for channels to find potential users I ask myself “where do my potential customers hang out?”. In this case, I’d look at online communities like Sports Book and Sports Betting subreddits. By simply asking the question, “How do you track betting lines?” you’ll be able to start conversations with potential users about unmet needs.
  3. Create an Online Ad: I’d next test an offer to see if you can acquire potential users to sign up for your service. This can be as simple as creating a landing page (using marketing language from the conversations above) and run a paid ad to your target audience to collect emails.
  4. Build a Wizard of Oz Test: Now that you have a list from running the ad above, I’d see if you can monetize it. Contact people and charge a small fee to run a small wizard of oz test - you could manually pull lines based on the bets they're watching and send it to them in a daily email. Or, there’s likely a no-code tool you could use to scrape the data from existing sites and organize it for them.
I can see a freemium model working for this as well, so you may not need to monetize immediately. One great option would be to charge the bookmakers a fee for every bet you send to their platform.
Challenges:
Additional Opportunities:
There appears to be no shortage of companies trying to become the next big bookmakers. But, there’s plenty of opportunities this burgeoning market has opened up beyond just being a bookie. With this market in its infancy, you can bet (pun 100% intended) that there’s going to be a lot of room to expand your offerings. Whether it be sports betting tips, predictions, tools or even becoming a bookie yourself, there’s money to be made here.
While doing research on this, I found many people are struggling with keeping track of their bets and recording their results. This could be an easy addition to a solution to tracking betting lines. Here’s what some people said -
https://imgur.com/a/aPTXuBd
Here’s my ask - I’m looking for feedback on whether posts like these are valuable enough to turn into a business. I’d like to send out a vetted problem/idea like this each week if there’s enough interest.
If you would like posts like these each week (and pay a small fee), please either DM me or reach out to [[email protected]](mailto:[email protected]). If you reach out, I’ll give you another free problem/idea as thanks for your time!
submitted by papapatty11 to u/papapatty11 [link] [comments]


2020.10.28 17:32 SuperHotUKDeals SanDisk SSD PLUS Solid State Drive 240GB, 530MBs/440MBs + 3 Year Warranty - £25.79 / 120GB - £18.69 Delivered @ Picstop

The description of this deal was not provided by this subreddit and it's contributors.
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At-a-Glance
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